In January, two members of our fund management team attended the 8th Piraeus Securities Greek Investment conference held in Paris. During the day, we met with 10 companies across various industries. The list of corporates included banks like Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank; oil refiners Helleniq Energy and Motor Oil; power producer and supplier Public Power Corporation; aluminum & copper processor Elval Halcor; cable manufacturer Cenergy Holdings; infrastructure developer GEK Terna; cement producer Titan Cement; and airport operator Athens International Airport. In 2025,
Greek equities had a stellar performance, with Greece being one of the best performing markets in Europe, as the Athens Stock Exchange rallied by +44.3%. This strong performance was supported by a strong macroeconomic outlook, the restoration of investment-grade status by rating agencies, and healthy earnings growth across the listed universe. The Greek market has entered 2026 with positive momentum which is likely to be sustained based on healthy macroeconomic environment, earnings growth and dividend distribution. It is also worth noting that the Greek market could be upgraded by MSCI from Emerging to Developed Markets soon.
Macro:
Post pandemic, the Greek economy has witnessed a strong growth on the back of full market access and government debt returning to investmentgrade status, aided by political stability which has led to increased confidence among international investors. The Greek Budget estimates GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026; largely driven by private consumption which is supported by minimum wage growth (+6% in 2026) and infrastructure investment in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). The share of GFCF excluding residential has witnessed a robust recovery from 10% (2021) to 15% (2025); backed by investments from non-financial corporations (~40% of investment). Despite this stellar rise in investments, the net capital stock per person in Greece is ~€130,000 which is ~35% below the euro-zone, giving visibility on investment related spends. It is important to note that apart from the rise in private investment, the Recovery and Resilience facility has played a role in supporting the economy (received ~€21bn out of ~€35bn). Going into 2026, the budget has approved fiscal measures such as tax incentives and wage increases of €1.7bn which will support consumption (~70% of GDP). While public finances are in the best position of the last 15 years, government debt to GDP has declined from 210% in 2020 to 150% in 2025 and is expected to fall further to 137% in 2026, while continued primary fiscal surplus of ~2.5-3% of GDP should further strengthen sovereign creditworthiness.
Greece’s potential reclassification from EM to DM
At the end of January 2026, MSCI launched a public consultation on a market reclassification proposal for MSCI Greece Index, potentially moving it from EM to DM status. The decision is scheduled to be announced by March 31, 2026, and if confirmed, the changes could be implemented in the August 2026 index review. This development of MSCI follows the announcement by FTSE in October 2025 to upgrade Greece from Advanced Emerging to Developed Market effective September 2026. It remains unclear whether a shift in MSCI status from EM to DM would generate short-term inflows into the market; however, over the longer term, it would undoubtedly be positive.
Company focus: Motor Oil (Sales: $14bn - Market Capitalization: $4.7bn)
Founded in 1970 by Vardis Vardinogiannis and Georgios Alesksandridis as Motor Oil Hellas, the company was primarily focused on refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products. In 1970, the company received a license to construct a private refinery in Corinth, Greece. Though the license came with restrictions, including limited rights to sell refined products in the domestic market, this led Motor Oil to become an export-oriented refinery. The company ensured the Corinth refinery was flexible in crude processing and capable of handling a high level of complexity (Nelson complexity index: 12.6), as ~75% of its crude comes from Iraq, as medium and heavy sour crude. As of 2025, the company has a crude processing capacity of ~220,000 barrels per day and processed ~8.85MT (9M25), of which ~45% was sold in the domestic market (Civil, Shipping & Aviation) and ~55% was exported. The company entered the fuel distribution business (2002) with 100% acquisition of Avil Oil and further expanded its presence by acquiring Shell’s downstream operations “Shell Hellas”. The acquisition has enabled Motor Oil to have a network of over 1,500 fuel stations with a market share of 35% m/s in Greece. The refining and fuel marketing business contributes to approximately ~85% of Group EBITDA (2025). In addition, Motor Oil is diversifying into new segments such as natural gas, renewable energy and waste management. In 2018, the company entered the Power and Natural gas production & supply businesses. Recently, Motor Oil entered a 50% JV with GEK Terna to combine their Power & Natural gas operations. The combined entity will serve ~550,000 customers and have a market share of ~17% in power and ~11% in natural gas. Motor Oil also entered the renewable energy business (2019) where they now have an installed capacity of ~850MW (~95% wind assets) with visibility to expand capacity to 2GW by 2030. Motor Oil is also focusing on the circular economy through the management of solid waste and waste oil, with an order backlog of $1.2bn. The company is undergoing an investment program of $4.75bn (2025-2030) towards strengthening its electrification and circular economy which will be funded via internal cash flows. These investments will transform Motor Oil from the best-in-class downstream operator into a regional multi-energy leader. Over a 3-year period (2025-2028), the company is expected to generate annual free cash flow of $350Mn. The stock trades at a dividend yield of ~5% and a 2026 PER of 7.6x. We have started to invest in the company, given its strong cash generation, above-average growth prospects and low valuation.
Company focus: Motor Oil (Sales: $14bn - Market Capitalization: $4.7bn)
In 2016, the merger between Hellenic Cables and Corinth Pipework led to the creation of Cenergy Holdings. The rationale to merge both entities from a commercial perspective was to approach the same set of customers. The core roots of the organization were laid down in the late 1950’s when the cables division launched its operation through the production of telecom cables. Over the years, however, the division has transformed into a reliable cable solution at the forefront of energy transition. The division produces low, medium and high voltage cables with 50% used for energy projects and 45% for Power & Telecom communications. In the past 15 years Cenergy has invested ~$1bn across its 6 facilities located in low-cost European locations. The investments have supported sales growth, as between 2022-2024 the segment grew at a CAGR of 12% and now contributes 65% of Group EBITDA. The segment has an outstanding order book of $3.6bn (~50% inter-connections & ~35% wind offshore) which will be executed over the next 3 years. Currently Cenergy is undergoing an investment program of $400mn to increase capacity in Greece and to build a new facility in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Steel division has become a leading manufacturer in the region for onshore & offshore energy projects. It was amongst the first manufacturers to deliver pipes capable of transporting 100% hydrogen for high-pressure networks. By focusing on demanding projects, the division has been able to form long-term partnerships with players such as Arcelor Mittal, Equinor, EDF and Total Energies. Currently, ~90% of its products are used for Natural Gas. Despite being a mature business, sales have grown at a CAGR of ~11% (2022-2024) and contribute 35% of Group EBITDA. Over the medium term, Cenergy expects ~12% organic sales growth and EBITDA of ~$450-500Mn (vs. $272Mn in 2024). The company’s EPS is expected to grow 22%. The stock trades at a 2026 PER of 19x.
Rishabh Chudgar Fund Manager
